Week Ahead: US Fed Policy, FII flow, Trump tariffs, global cues among key triggers for Indian stock market | Stock Market News

The Indian stock market resumed its downward trajectory, displaying a consolidation tone over mixed global cues in the holiday-shortened week after a brief recovery earlier this month. Investor sentiment remained cautious due to escalating concerns over a potential global trade war, driven by updates on US tariff plans and retaliatory tariffs from other countries.

Next, investors will monitor some key market triggers in the third week of March. US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision, Donald Trump’s tariff announcements, foreign fund outflow, domestic and global macroeconomic data, and global market cues will dictate the market direction in the next five days.

Also Read: Wall Street’s ‘week of drama’ on Trump chaos: Tariff hikes to Mag 7 group—5 key factors that moved US stock market

Domestic equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty 50 remained range-bound on Friday but reported their fifth consecutive day of loss, dragged by selling in realty, IT, and auto stocks. The escalating global trade war, which is weighing on the US economy, hit heavyweight information technology (IT) stocks hard.

The 30-share BSE Sensex declined by 200.85 points or 0.27 per cent to close at 73,828.91, with 22 of its constituents ending lower and eight with gains. The NSE Nifty fell 73.30 points or 0.33 per cent to settle at 22,397.20. 

The Nifty 50 fell 0.69 per cent during the week, while the Sensex lost 0.68 per cent. The broader mid-caps and small-caps lost 2.2 per cent and 3.9 per cent, respectively, for the week. The market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms declined by ₹1,71,623.67 crore to ₹3,91,12,994.41 crore ($4.49 trillion).

“The moderation in valuations following recent corrections, along with supportive factors such as falling crude oil prices, an easing Dollar Index, and expectations of a rebound in domestic earnings in the coming quarters, may limit the volatility and is expected to contribute to stability amid prevailing trade uncertainties,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services.

This week, the primary market will witness a subdued trend with a few new initial public offerings (IPO), and listings slated across the mainboard and small and medium enterprises (SME) segments. The week will be critical from the domestic and technical points of view. Investors will track domestic and global macroeconomic data, along with monetary policies.

Here are the key triggers for stock markets in the coming week:

4 new IPOs, 2 new listings to hit D-Street

In the mainboard segment, Arisinfra Solutions IPO will open for subscription on March 20. In the SME segment, three new issues will open this week. Among listings, shares of two SMEs will get listed on either BSE SME or NSE SME.

FII Activity

On the institutional front, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) recorded net outflows of ₹5,729 crore in the cash segment, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) infused ₹5,499 crore, providing some stability to the market.

“The trend of FII selling in India continued in early March, too. However, the intensity of selling is slowly declining as valuations become reasonable. This month, up to the 14th, FIIs have sold equity for ₹30,015 crore, taking the total equity selling in 2025 so far to ₹1,42,616 crore,” said Dr V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services.

In March so far, FIIs were buyers in the debt category. The total buy figure for debt (general category plus VRR) stood at ₹7,029 crore in March up to 14th. The foreign portfolio investors’ (FPI) outflows from India have been mainly going into Chinese stocks, which have been outperforming other markets in 2025. 

“The recent decline in the dollar index will limit the fund flows to the US. However, the heightened uncertainty triggered by the trade war between the US and other nations is likely to push more money into safe asset classes like gold and dollar,” said Dr V K Vijayakumar.

Global Cues

Looking ahead, all eyes are on the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy review scheduled for March 19. While recent inflation data suggests a favourable trend, the possibility of an interest rate cut remains uncertain due to ongoing trade tensions. However, Powell’s commentary would be crucial.

“The escalating global trade war has weighed heavily on market sentiments worldwide, causing indices to trade within a narrow range..Persistent global trade uncertainties and the fear of a US recession may continue to influence the domestic market’s momentum,” said Vinod Nair of Geojit.

The upcoming week is set to be dynamic for global markets, driven by key macroeconomic data releases. Market sentiment will be shaped by the US Fed interest rate decision, US core retail sales (Feb), US initial jobless claims, US existing home sales (Feb), BoE interest rate decision, and UK unemployment rate.

“Looking ahead, next week’s release of China’s retail sales growth data and industrial production data will provide a clearer understanding of the Chinese economic growth outlook,” added Nair. Moreover, selling pressure from foreign investors has intensified once again after a brief slowdown.

Corporate Action

Shares of Castrol India Ltd, Power Finance Corporation Ltd, and Indian Railway Finance Corporation Ltd, among others, will trade ex-dividend next week, starting from March 17. A few stocks will also trade ex-split and ex-bonus this week.

Technical View

From a technical perspective, Nifty 50 remains in a consolidation phase, trading within a tight range of 22,250 to 22,650. A decisive breakout could drive the index towards 23,100 or higher. Read full technical analysis here

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations provided in this analysis are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We strongly advise investors to consult with certified experts, consider individual risk tolerance, and conduct thorough research before making investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly, and individual circumstances may vary.