Week Ahead: Q3 Results, FII flow, Donald Trump inauguration, global cues among key market triggers for Sensex, Nifty | Stock Market News

The Indian stock market is poised for a high-stakes week ahead even as pessimism persists among participants, underscored by some critical macroeconomic data indicators and several marquee corporate earnings.

Investors will monitor key market triggers in the fourth week of 2025, including the next set of December quarter earnings for the current fiscal 2024-25 (Q3FY25), Donald Trump’s inauguration as US President, domestic and global macroeconomic data, foreign fund outflows, crude oil prices and other global cues.

On Friday, domestic equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty 50 snapped a three-day winning streak to log weekly losses after IT stocks tumbled on mounting worries about earnings growth and persistent foreign outflows from domestic equities. The indices have declined over three per cent in the past two weeks.

Also Read: Zomato stock down 21% from 52-week high amid market pessimism: Should you buy, sell, or hold to build sizable positions?

The Nifty 50 fell 0.47 per cent to end at 23,203.2, while the BSE Sensex shed 0.55 per cent to close at 76,619.33. They lost about one per cent each this week. The IT sector emerged as the biggest drag, with the Nifty IT index plummeting by six per cent, marking its steepest weekly fall in nearly a year.

Persistent foreign outflow, mixed corporate earnings, and a sharp rise in crude oil prices dampened investor sentiment amid the consolidation phase. IT stocks shed 5.8 per cent to post their worst week in 10 months. Infosys and HCL Tech, India’s No. 2 and No. 3 IT firms, dropped 7.7 per cent and 10 per cent, respectively, for the week, the most on the Nifty.

While the broader market struggled, Reliance supported Nifty 50, preventing deeper losses. Overall sentiment remained bearish due to sectoral underperformance and external market pressures. However, easing retail inflation and strength in select heavyweight stocks helped limit the pace of the decline.

Also Read: Reliance Q3 Results: Net profit rises 7.4% to ₹18,540 crore led by Jio & retail biz, O2C recovers; Revenue up 6.7% YoY

“Market participants will closely watch for policy measures, fiscal allocations, and growth initiatives that could influence key sectors and overall investor sentiment,” said Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst at Swastika Investmart. As the earnings season progresses, investors are expected to shift their attention to the upcoming Union Budget, which will outline the government’s economic and fiscal roadmap for the year.

“Large-cap, IT, banking stocks saw higher underperformance due to a cautious outlook on discretionary spending for the former and subdued deposit and credit growth, and tighter liquidity conditions for the latter. In contrast, public sector banks (PSUs) performed well during the week,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services.

Also Read: Union Budget 2025: Budget session of Parliament from January 31; check dates, full schedule

“Due to the strengthening dollar, investors are increasingly adopting a risk-averse stance. Rising uncertainty over potential economic policies from the new US administration impacted overall sentiments. The market is expected to remain cautious in the short term due to moderate Q3 expectations, while persistent outflows could add to higher volatility,” added Nair.

This week, the primary market will witness action as some new initial public offerings (IPO) and important listings are slated across the mainboard and small and medium enterprises (SME) segments. The week will be critical from the domestic and technical point of view as investors will track domestic and global economic data, along with quarterly corporate earnings.

Here are the key triggers for stock markets in the coming week:

Q3 Results

Several heavyweights and major Nifty 50 companies such as Hindustan Unilever Ltd (HUL), HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL), Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories, UltraTech Cement, JSW Steel, and Hindustan Petroleum are scheduled to announce their financial results this week. These announcements are expected to drive significant stock-specific action.

Also Read: Wipro ADR rises 4% on NYSE after IT major’s net profit shoots 24% YoY to surpass Street estimates in Q3FY25

Dixon Technologies, L&T Finance, and Oberoi Realty will declare their Q3 results on January 20, followed by Tata Technologies and Dalmia Bharat on January 21. On January 22, market participants will seek earnings from Polycab India, Persistent Systems, HDFC Bank, Tata Communications, Coforge, HUL, and BPCL. The week concludes with UltraTech Cement, Mphasis, Indus Towers, Dr. Reddy’s Lab reporting Q3 results on January 23.

Robust performances from these corporate heavyweights could catalyze positive investor sentiment, while any earnings misses may exacerbate market volatility,” said Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group.
 

5 new IPOs, 6 listings to hit D-Street

In the mainboard segment, Denta Water IPO will open for subscription on January 22. In the SME segment, four new issues will open for bidding this week. Among listings, shares of Laxmi Dental will debut on stock exchanges BSE and NSE on January 20. Shares of five SMEs will get listed on either BSE SME or NSE SME. 

Also Read: Upcoming IPO: Karnataka-based Vinir Engineering files DRHP with SEBI to raise funds via IPO; Details here

FII Activity

Adding to the market’s complexity is the ongoing battle between foreign institutional investors (FIIs) and domestic institutional investors (DIIs). “While FIIs have been aggressively offloading Indian equities, DIIs have been stepping in to accumulate stocks, leading to an intricate interplay of market forces. This divergence in investment strategies has contributed to heightened volatility and uncertainty in the market,” said Pravesh Gour.

The relentless selling by FIIs in the cash market continued last week. FIIs have been sellers on all days this month except January 2. So far, through 17th January, FIIs have sold equity for ₹45,498 crore through the stock exchanges. They bought for ₹1,101 crore in the primary market. 

Also Read: FPIs on selling spree: ₹22,000 crore withdrawn from Indian equities in January

The principal reasons for the sustained FII selling are the strength of the dollar and the rising bond yields in the US. “With the dollar index above 109 and the 10-year US bond yield above 4.6 per cent, it is logical for FIIs to sell in emerging markets, particularly in the most expensive emerging market,” said Dr. V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services

“Since US bond yields are attractive, FIIs have also been sellers in the debt market. A reversal of the FII flows will happen only after the market signals the peaking of the dollar and US bond yields, followed by their decline. This, in turn, will depend on President Trump’s tariff policies, which are not yet clear,” added Dr. V K Vijayakumar.

Global Cues, Donald Trump inauguration

On the global front, all eyes are on Donald Trump as he prepares to be formally inaugurated as the 47th President of the US on January 20, marking his return to the White House. According to reports, Donald Trump is planning an aggressive policy rollout in his initial days back in office. 

“ than 100 executive presidential orders are reportedly in the works, aimed at addressing key policy priorities such as border security, deportations, and tariff hikes, signalling a bold and a rapid start to his new administration,” said Pravesh Gour of Swastika Investmart. 

Also Read: Donald Trump’s new $TRUMP meme coin grips crypto market: What is it? Why is it surging?— EXPLAINED in 5 Points

Market experts say the swearing-in of US President Donald Trump on January 20 is expected to draw significant attention, especially for the initial announcements on trade tariffs and their implications for global trade.

According to Vinod Nair of Geojit, the incoming US president’s policies and comments will be keenly watched with a focus on tariffs. Higher inflation in Japan or tighter policy from BoJ will weigh on market sentiments.

Rising inflation, global price trends, and corporate performance will be crucial for market participants. Supportive macroeconomic fundamentals, including buoyant PMI data and strong industrial output, could sustain a risk-on sentiment. “However, heightened price discovery and potential volatility call for a data-driven, tactical approach to capitalize on favourable conditions while mitigating downside exposure,” said Puneet Singhania.

Corporate Action

In the coming week, shares of Angel One, Havells, Waaree Renewable Tech, and Mastek, among others, will trade ex-dividend in the coming week, starting from January 20. Shares of several other companies will also trade ex-bonus and ex-split. Check full list here
 

Technical View

From a technical perspective, Nifty 50 has breached its November 2024 low of 23,263.15, facing selling pressure on every recovery attempt. Ajit Mishra– SVP of Research of Religare Broking, expects the index to test the 22,700 level, with minor support at 22,900. 

On the upside, any rebound will likely face strong resistance in the 23,500-23,700 zone. “Traders are advised to maintain a bearish bias in the index, using recoveries to reduce existing long positions or initiate fresh shorts until clear signs of a reversal emerge,” said Mishra.

Also Read: Jio Financial Services Q3 Results Highlights: Net profit up 0.3% to ₹295 crore, AUM surges to ₹4,199 crore

It will be crucial to monitor whether the broader indices, including midcaps and small caps, can sustain their ground. Corporate earnings-related movements are expected to keep traders vigilant. “We thus reiterate the importance of prioritizing risk management and maintaining a balanced approach with positions on both sides of the market,” added Mishra.

Nifty is trading below its 21-week and daily EMAs and has slipped under the ascending trendline, signalling a bearish sentiment. It also breached the critical horizontal support zone of 23,200–23,300, which was previously a strong support. This breakdown suggests a potential downside toward 22,800. 

However, buying may emerge if the index reclaims 23,400, potentially pushing it to 23,700. “Traders should monitor key resistance levels for a bounce as they present selling opportunities. The trend remains bearish until the index sustains above critical resistance,” said Puneet Singhania of Master Trust Group.

Bank Nifty extended losses for a third consecutive week, breaking its consolidation zone and closing below its 21-week and daily EMAs. The breach of the ascending trendline, which previously acted as a crucial support, highlights strong bearish sentiment. 

Important support now lies at 48,000; a breach of this level could trigger a further decline to 47,200. The index is in a “sell-on-rise” mode, offering selling opportunities for any bounce near 48,900. To manage risk, traders can place a stop-loss at 49,500. Unless Bank Nifty reclaims key resistance levels, the trend remains bearish, with further downside likely,” said Singhania.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations provided in this analysis are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We strongly advise investors to consult with certified experts, consider individual risk tolerance, and conduct thorough research before making investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly, and individual circumstances may vary.