Week Ahead: Delhi election results, Q3 earnings, inflation data among key triggers for Indian stock market | Stock Market News

The Indian stock market experienced another week of volatility but managed to settle with marginal gains, driven by mixed global and domestic factors. Budget 2025 announcements, Reserve Bank of India (RBI)’s first monetary policy for 2025, Delhi elections 2025, and US trade tariff announcements were the major themes that dictated the market movement last week.

Next, investors will monitor key market triggers in the second week of February, with markets entering the second month of 2025. Delhi Election Results 2025, Q3 earnings, retail inflation data, foreign fund outflow, and global cues will dictate the market direction in the next five days.

Domestic equity benchmarks continued their upward momentum for the second consecutive week, with the Nifty 50 advancing by 0.33 per cent to close at 23,559.95 and the BSE Sensex rising 0.46 per cent to settle at 77,860.

The central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), headed by RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra, slashed the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25 per cent. This was the first reduction since May 2020 and the first revision after two-and-a-half years. The rate cut failed to excite investors who were expecting measures from the central bank to boost liquidity.

On Friday, the MPC delivered the widely anticipated repo rate cut, but the move failed to trigger a significant market reaction. The positive sentiment was largely driven by the improved domestic outlook following Budget 2025 and US President Donald Trump’s temporary suspension of import tariffs on Canada and Mexico, easing global trade worries.

Also Read: RBI Monetary Policy: Is the rate cut a growth pill to boost demand? Here’s what it means for the Indian economy

Rate-sensitive sectors such as banking, financials, and auto led the initial recovery, supported by expectations of an RBI interest rate cut. “Strength was witnessed in metal, IT, and pharma stocks, which contributed to the overall positive momentum,” said Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd.

Despite the gains, several factors kept the upside in check. “Subdued Q3 corporate earnings, persistent rupee depreciation, and sustained foreign fund outflows weighed on the market,” said Puneet Singhania, Director of Master Trust Group.

This week, the primary market will witness action with three new initial public offerings (IPO) and important listings are slated across the mainboard and small and medium enterprises (SME) segments. The week will be critical from the domestic and technical point of view as investors will track domestic and global economic data, along with quarterly corporate earnings.

Here are the key triggers for stock markets in the coming week:

Delhi Election Results 2025

The BJP won 48 of 70 assembly seats in Delhi, comfortably crossing the halfway mark needed to form a government in the union territory. D-Street experts say the BJP’s victory in the Delhi elections is a major achievement for the ruling dispensation. Sentiments in the Indian market are slowly improving in response to an excellent Budget and the MPC’s rate cut. 

Also Read: Delhi Election Results: How will Indian stock market move after BJP’s victory? Key technical levels for Nifty, Sensex

“This is likely to impact the market positively in the short run. However, the medium to long-term trend in the market will depend on the recovery in GDP growth and earnings recovery,” said Dr. V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services.

Domestic macroeconomic data

Market attention is expected to turn towards macroeconomic indicators scheduled during the week, such as the index of industrial production (IIP), consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation, and wholesale price index (WPI) inflation.

Also Read: RBI, FinMin to work together; Tax relief, interest rate cut to boost demand: FM Sitharaman ahead of new I-T bill

Inflation and industrial output data will be released on February 12. January inflation is forecasted at 4.69 per cent YoY, lower than the previous 5.22 per cen, which could impact the RBI’s rate decisions in the April policy review meeting. December industrial production is expected at 4.1 per cent YoY compared to 5.2 per cent, signalling weak manufacturing momentum.

Q3 Results

Corporate earnings will also drive the market sentiment. Major companies reporting their December quarter results this week include TVS Supply Chain Solutions, Varun Beverages, CRISIL, Eicher Motors, Apollo Hospitals, Grasim Industries, Vodafone Idea, Steel Authority of India, Bayer CropScience, Hindustan Aeronautics, IIFL Finance, and Muthoot Finance.

9 new IPOs, 6 listings to hit D-Street

In the mainboard segment, Ajax Engineering IPO, Hexaware Technologies IPO, and Quality Power IPO will open for subscription this week. In the SME segment, six new issues will open for bidding in the next five days. Among listings, shares of six SMEs will debut on either BSE SME or NSE SME this week.

FII Activity

Institutional activity showed net foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows of ₹8,852 crore in the cash segment, offset by strong domestic institutional investors (DII) inflows of ₹6,449 crore, providing stability to the market.

“The strength in the dollar index and the high US bond yields continue to force the FIIs to sell. Going forward, FIIs are likely to reduce their selling since the dollar index and US bond yields are indicating a softening trend,” said Dr V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.

Also Read: RBI kicks off rate cut cycle after a 5-year lull; will this cause Nifty 50 to reclaim the 25K mark?

Sentiments in the Indian stock market are slowly improving in response to an excellent Budget and the MPC’s rate cut. The BJP’s victory in the Delhi elections is a major achievement for the ruling dispensation. 

“This is likely to impact the market positively in the short run. However, the market’s medium—to long-term trend will depend on the recovery in GDP growth and earnings recovery,” added Dr V K Vijayakumar.

Global Cues

The market outlook will be guided by major global economic data coming out this week. Macro data such as US CPI (Jan), US Core CPI (Jan), US Initial Jobless Claims, US PPI (MoM) (Jan), US Core PPI (Jan), US Industrial Production (Jan), US Retail Sales (Jan), UK GDP data, China CPI (MoM) (Jan) will shape market sentiment in the next five days.

The US inflation data for January will be discussed on Wednesday, February 12. Core inflation is expected to be 3.2 per cent YoY, while headline inflation is projected to be 2.9 per cent YoY. Any surprise in these figures could influence the US Federal Reserve’s future policy stance. 

Later in the day, US Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony will be closely watched for insights into interest rate expectations. On February 13, the UK’s December GDP growth data will be released. Analysts expect the GDP to grow at 0.1 per cent monthly.

Also Read: US Fed holds benchmark rates steady at 4.25-4.50% in first policy verdict of Trump Presidency; 5 key highlights

By Friday, February 14, US retail sales data for January, forecasted at 0.4 per cent MoM, will provide insights into consumer spending. India’s foreign exchange reserves, bank loan growth, and trade balance figures will also be released, influencing rupee and equity market movements.

Apart from these, the US dollar index, US bond yields, foreign fund outflow, Asian markets, and crude oil prices will dictate the market movement, especially given US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies.

Corporate Action

Shares of Hero MotoCorp, ITC, Cochin, and Shipyard, among others, will trade ex-dividend in the coming week. A few stocks will also trade ex-split and ex-bonus this week. Check full list here

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations provided in this analysis are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We strongly advise investors to consult with certified experts, consider individual risk tolerance, and conduct thorough research before making investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly, and individual circumstances may vary.