Week Ahead: Auto sales, macro data, FII flow, Trump tariffs, global cues among key triggers for Indian stock market | Stock Market News

The Indian stock market is on the verge of a bear grip after extending its losing streak for the third consecutive week, hitting its lowest levels since June 2024. The sentiment of domestic and foreign investors deteriorated due to escalating trade tariff concerns from the US and unfavourable global cues.

Next, investors will monitor some key market triggers in the first week of March. Monthly auto sales, Donald Trump’s tariff announcements, the rupee-dollar rate, foreign fund outflow, domestic and global macroeconomic data, and global market cues will dictate the market direction in the next five days.

Previously, domestic equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty 50 ended their week-long consolidation phase with a sharp three per cent decline, primarily dragged by weak global cues. Concerns over the impact of US tariffs on global trade and persistent foreign fund outflows kept the sentiment negative from the outset. 

Although select heavyweights attempted to limit the downside midweek, a sharp selloff in the final session confirmed the bearish tone. The NSE benchmark posted its longest monthly losing streak in the last 29 years (since 1996). Nifty 50 and Sensex closed at their weekly lows of 22,124.70 and 73,198.10, respectively, extending losses for the eighth straight session.

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Sensex and Nifty suffered their biggest intraday drop of 2025 and closed lower for the fifth consecutive month. The frontline indices shed six per cent in February and are down 15-16 per cent from their September peaks. The Nifty IT index hit a six-month low. All major sectors aligned with the broader market, posting losses, with IT, realty, and energy emerging as the top underperformers. 

The broader and more domestically focussed mid-cap index confirmed a bear market, falling more than 20 per cent from its September 24 record close, pressured by poor earnings, lofty valuations, US tariff concerns and persistent foreign outflows. Investors’ wealth plunged by ₹9 lakh crore on Friday, bringing the total wealth erosion for the week to ₹20 lakh crore.

“India’s Q3 FY25 GDP data met expectations, with a slight upward revision to 6.5 per cent for the fiscal year. The agriculture sector posted steady growth, indicating a likely improvement in the kharif crop, which could support rural consumption,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services.

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“In the near term, Indian stock market conditions are expected to remain weak, with a gradual recovery anticipated as earnings improve from Q1 FY26 and global trade policy uncertainties subside,” added Nair.

This week, the primary market will witness a subdued trend with hardly any new initial public offerings (IPO), and listings slated across the mainboard and small and medium enterprises (SME) segments. The week will be critical from the domestic and technical point of view as investors will track all domestic and global macroeconomic data, along with currency rates.

Here are the key triggers for stock markets in the coming week:

Macro data, Auto sales

As the new month begins, market participants will closely track high-frequency data, including auto sales and PMI figures. India’s Composite PMI output for February will be released on Wednesday, March 5. Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group, forecasts at 60.6 and believes it will be crucial for market movement. 

In India, composite output refers to a weighted average of the manufacturing output index and the services business activity index. PMI output better than expected should be taken as a positive update for the Indian economy, while a lower-than-expected reading may be termed a bearish update.
 

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1 new IPO, 4 listings to hit D-Street

No new issues are listed for opening in the mainboard segment. In the SME segment, one new issue will open for subscription this week. Among listings, four new SMEs will debut on either BSE SME or NSE SME this week.

FII Activity

Institutional activity reflected net foreign institutional investors’ (FII) outflows of ₹22,011 crore in the cash segment, while domestic institutional investors’ (DII) inflows stood at ₹22,252 crore, offering some support to the market. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) continued to pull out funds from the Indian stock market in February, selling equities worth ₹34,574 crore.

“FIIs invested ₹11,051 crore through the primary market. So, the net sales figure for 2025 up to February stands at ₹1,12,601 crore. An important paradox in FII selling is that they are selling heavily in financial services—the sector that is doing well and has attractive valuations,” said Dr V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services.

Also Read: FPIs remain net sellers for 4 of 5 months, sold worth ₹1.13 lakh crore in just 2 months of 2025

“FIIs are focused on selling in India because valuations in India are high and are moving money to Chinese stocks, where valuations are much lower. But in the process, they are selling in the best-performing sector with attractive valuations,” added Dr V K Vijayakumar.

Earnings for the third quarter of FY25 were modest, indicating uncertainty. Revisions to forward earnings have struggled, with downgrades outpacing upgrades, particularly among companies outside the Nifty 50. Analysts say falling commodity prices and reduced consumer spending adversely impact corporate profits and diminish the appeal of Indian equities to foreign investors. 

“Consequently, FPIs in Indian equities have reached multi-year lows due to significant selling, and investors are likely to await signs of recovery before re-entering the market. Until then, volatility in Indian markets will continue due to global and domestic challenges,” said Vipul Bhowar, Senior Director – Listed Investments, Waterfield Advisors.

Global Cues

The upcoming week is set to be dynamic for global markets, driven by key macroeconomic data releases, US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech and the impact of major tariffs by the US president. Market sentiment will be shaped by initial jobless claims, unemployment data and nonfarm payrolls.

US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February) data will be released on March 3. It is estimated to be 51.6. UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February) and China S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February) will also be released in February, and they are forecasted to come in at 46.4 and 50.6, respectively.

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“The US Composite PMI released for February will be of great importance. The forecasted value for US Composite PMI is 50.4. The US Composite PMI came at 52.7 in January, and the forecasted value for February could indicate a near-stagnation in the private sector,” said Puneet Singhania.

On March 6, the US initial jobless claims data will be released. The projection of 250K suggests a rising unemployment issue and is an important indicator for predicting economic conditions. Data on the US unemployment rate for February will be released on March 7. US Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak on Friday to shed light on the present economic conditions and outlook.

Corporate Action

Shares of Metro Brands, SBI Life Insurance, among others, will trade ex-dividend in the coming week, starting from Monday, March 3. A few stocks will also trade ex-split and ex-bonus this week. Check full list here

Technical View

Technically, Nifty is approaching a crucial support zone of 21,800-22,000. A decisive break below this range could extend the decline toward the 21,000-21,200 zone, potentially pushing the index officially into a bear market. Read full technical analysis here

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations provided in this analysis are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We strongly advise investors to consult with certified experts, consider individual risk tolerance, and conduct thorough research before making investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly, and individual circumstances may vary.