Stock check: Axis Bank, down 7% YTD, to outperform Nifty 50 index in 2025? Here’s what technical data reveals | Stock Market News

Axis Bank stock check: The banking stock, in the last 7 months has declined from the highs of 1340 levels as observed on July 12, 2024 to a low of 933 levels as observed on January 27, 2025. It has bounced up in the last 2 weeks to start sustaining above its 8-day EMA

– The recent up-move has been on the back of higher than average traded volumes and delivery volumes. The average traded volumes since the up-move stands at 9.7 million shares as against 8.7 million shares when the stock declined. Similarly, the average delivery volumes for the respective period stands at 6.5 million and 5.9 million shares.

– The series has started with a cumulative future open interest of 111.3 million shares as against last 3-series average of 69.1 million shares as observed on the day of inception. It currently stands at 101.9 million shares, suggesting short covering. With open interest still on the higher side, we expect further short covering to prevail.

– Quarter-to-date, the stock has underperformed the Nifty and the Bank Nifty by ~3% each.

– The stock has a relatively stronger seasonality in the 2nd quarter of the calendar year with the bottom formation in the 1st quarter. Quarter-to-date, the stock has declined by 5% as against an average quarter negative return of 0.3% observed in the last 10 years. A negative return over 5% has been observed only on 3 occasions (year 2018, 2020 and 2023) while a negative return of over 10% has been observed only on 1 occasion (year 2020). Overall data suggest limited downsides from the current levels.

– In the last 10 years, the stock has closed in the green in the 2nd quarter on 8 occasions with an average return of ~6%.

– In comparison to NSE200 weights, Mutual Funds are under-weight in the stock.

– Post the Covid-19 decline, the ratio of AXSB over Nifty has been trading in an upward slopping channel pattern. It tested the lower end of the pattern during the start of the current month and has started moving up in favour of AXSB. With the upper end of the pattern at significantly higher levels, we expect strong outperformance to prevail.

– On a 5-year data window, the ratio is trading at 0.6 standard deviation below the mean levels of 0.0466.