RBI to keep repo rate at 6.50% in October, cut by 25bps in December: Poll

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to cut interest rates by a modest 50 bps over the next six months, according to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll who said it would likely wait until December to start rather than move in October.

Inflation held below the RBI’s medium-term target of 4.0 for a second month in August. While it is expected to rise a bit in coming months, it has held in the 2-6 comfort zone for nearly a year and was expected to stay there through mid-2026.

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Most economists said the RBI would not be led to follow up quickly after the U.S. Federal Reserve’s 50 basis-point cut this month, thanks to a strong domestic economy and a stable currency.

Median forecasts for the repo rate have not changed in Reuters polls taken since April.

Over 80 of economists, 63 of 76, in a Sept. 17-26 Reuters poll predicted the RBI would hold the repo rate at 6.50 at the conclusion of its Oct. 7-9 meeting. Twelve forecast a 25 basis-point cut, while one anticipated a drop to 6.15.

The RBI has held the repo rate steady since February 2023, focusing on maintaining a tight trading range for the rupee through direct intervention in the FX market.

“The reason why the RBI will not be in a hurry, unlike the Fed who had to go for a cut, is because the Indian economy is still on a very strong wicket,” said Suman Chowdhury, economist at Acuite Ratings.

“With…food inflation showing signs of coming down and for the next few months likely to behave better compared to last year, I see the likelihood of the cut in December,” he added.

Governor Shaktikanta Das reiterated recently that it was important to “not get carried away by some dips in inflation,” leading several to conclude it would take a few more readings of benign inflation to give the RBI enough confidence to cut rates.

Some economists did not provide rate estimates beyond the upcoming meeting amid uncertainty over the appointment of three new external members to the Monetary Policy Committee as the terms for current members are due to expire on Oct. 4.

Median forecasts showed a quarter-point cut next quarter with nearly 60 (41 of 71) expecting rates to be 6.25. Still, just less than a third (22) saw them at 6.50 and the rest (8) expected rates at 6.15 or lower.

Over half of those who provided year-end forecasts said the central bank would wait until December before cutting rates, despite many major central banks already easing.

The RBI was expected to cut another 25 basis points in February, lowering the repo rate to 6.00, according to median forecasts. That is much slower than the Fed, which is expected to cut by another 50 basis points in the next three months and by 100 basis points in 2025.

Despite the recent dip, the poll forecast Indian inflation to rise again, and average 4.5 this fiscal year and 4.3 next.

Asia’s third-largest economy was expected to expand 6.9 this fiscal year, softer than the 8.2 growth in FY 2023-24. But it will remain the fastest-growing major economy.

First Published: Sep 27 2024 | 8:49 AM IST