Rate decisions roll in, markets hold firm at highs

Feb 19 (Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.

Two interest rate decisions and Chinese house prices top the Asia-Pacific calendar on Wednesday, with markets still pretty buoyant even as investors navigate the increasingly powerful crosscurrents of global trade and geopolitical uncertainty.

Wall Street’s big three indices were little-changed on Tuesday but the S&P 500 eked out a new closing high, as did the MSCI World index. Markets are in a holding pattern, taking a ‘wait and see’ approach to tariffs and potential Russia-Ukraine truce. When it comes to U.S. monetary policy, the Federal Reserve is adopting a similar stance too. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Wednesday is expected to lop another 50 basis points off borrowing costs to counter slowing growth, while Bank Indonesia is set to hold rates to shore up the weak exchange rate, according to Reuters polls.

These decisions come a day after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut rates for the first time in four years but warned it was too early to declare victory over inflation and signaled caution over the prospects of further easing.

Like all their G10 FX peers, the Australian and New Zealand dollars have risen against the U.S. dollar this year although the ‘kiwi’ has cooled a bit this week ahead of the RBNZ decision. Indonesia’s rupiah is flat this year, making it one of the worst performers among key emerging currencies.

Despite the uncertainty around U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and protectionist trade agenda, emerging market sentiment remains upbeat. Investors seem willing to stay in riskier assets, which have been winning trades so far this year, for longer than had perhaps been expected. Emerging market debt and Chinese equities are two areas have performed well this year, and attracted huge inflows in January, Institute of International Finance figures showed on Tuesday.

Optimism on Chinese stocks, especially tech, is spreading as investors bet that the emergence of AI startup DeepSeek and President Xi Jinping’s meeting with the country’s tech entrepreneurs mark a bright, new dawn for the sector.

Hedge funds are pouring money in, and global investment banks are upgrading their outlooks. The danger is bullish sentiment and positions get too stretched, but the market doesn’t appear to be at that stage yet. Still, tense U.S.-Sino relations and escalating global trade tensions cannot be ignored, and on Tuesday China condemned Washington at the World Trade Organization, warning that its tariffs could upend world trade and risk global recession.

Meanwhile, the rise in Japanese Government Bond yields shows no sign of slowing, as markets bet on the Bank of Japan raising rates again this year. Yields are the highest since 2008, and have now risen 13 out of the last 14 trading sessions.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to Asian markets on Wednesday:

– New Zealand, Indonesia rate decisions

– China house prices (January)

– HSBC earnings (full-year 2024)

(By Jamie McGeever, editing by Deepa Babington)