Outlook 2025: Nifty target pegged at 26,300, FMCG, defence, IT among high-growth sectors for 2025; Top picks here | Stock Market News
Source: Live Mint
Outlook 2025: The final day of the year saw little activity on the Indian stock market. Due to weak global cues, the Sensex was in the red for the majority of the session. The Nifty reached the day’s high of 23,689.85 before closing below the 23,650 level.
The Indian stock market has been volatile in 2024, a reflection of a number of geopolitical, political, and economic events. Major indices like the Sensex and Nifty 50 achieved significant milestones in 2024. By the end of 2024, the market had experienced growth for nine years in a row. In 2024, the Nifty and Sensex will rise by approximately 9% and 8%, respectively. During the year, investors have been concerned about the high valuations of Indian markets in comparison to their worldwide counterparts, and corporate results for the September quarter fell short of market forecasts.
Looking forward, the direction of the market will be greatly influenced by elements such as investor confidence, government policy, the Union Budget, the Q3 earnings, and the new US president and potential ramifications for world trade. These will have an impact on the market’s course during 2025
“We forecast a base target of 26,300 for Dec 2025 suggesting a moderate return of ~10% YoY supported by expected earnings revamp from Q3FY25 onwards. India’s real GDP growth is forecasted to rise towards 7.0% in FY26 from 6.5% in FY25, suggesting a stable domestic market and positive outlook. Key challenges include uncertainty on trade war, moderation in earnings growth and high premium valuation affecting short to medium-term stock performance,” said Geojit.
MULTI-ASSET STRATEGY: The recommended strategy involves maintaining a diversified multi-asset portfolio, allocating 60% to equities, 25% to debt, 10% to gold, and 5% to cash for seizing new opportunities. Within the equity portion, the focus should be on large-cap stocks, given that mid-cap valuations have returned to their historical peak ratios of 60% relative to large caps
Base Sase: We value at a forward P/E of 19.5x and assign a base target of 26,300.
Peak Case: We value Nifty50 at a forward P/E of 20.5x to assign a target of 27,650.
Trough Case: We value Nifty50 at a low base of 16x to assign a target of 21,600.
