OPEC slashes 2025 global demand growth forecast on Trump tariff-impact: Where is crude oil headed now? | Stock Market News

OPEC cut its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast on Monday, citing the impact of data received for the first quarter and trade tariffs announced by the U.S., and also reduced its global economic growth forecasts for this year and next.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, in a monthly report, said world oil demand will rise by 1.30 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, down 150,000 bpd from last month’s forecast.

OPEC also lowered its forecasts for world economic growth this year and next.

“The global economy showed a steady growth trend at the beginning of the year, however, recent trade-related dynamics have introduced higher uncertainty to the short-term global economic growth outlook,” OPEC said in the report.

OPEC’s oil demand view is still at the higher end of industry forecasts and it expects oil use to keep rising for years, unlike the International Energy Agency, which sees demand peaking this decade as the world switches to cleaner fuels.

Oil prices rose more than 1% on Monday after U.S. exclusions on some tariffs and Chinese data showing a sharp rebound in crude imports in March, but gains were capped by concerns that the trade war between the United States and China could weaken global economic growth and dent fuel demand.

Brent crude futures rose by 83 cents, or 1.3%, to $65.59 a barrel by 1246 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 81 cents, or 1.3%, at $62.31.

Late on Friday U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration granted exclusions from steep tariffs on smartphones, computers and some other electronic goods imported largely from China. It was the latest in a series of policy announcements that imposed tariffs and then walked them back, spurring uncertainty for investors and businesses.

Trump said on Sunday that he would announce the tariff rate on imported semiconductors over the next week.

China’s crude oil imports in March rebounded sharply from the previous two months and were up nearly 5% from a year earlier, data showed on Monday, boosted by Iranian oil and a rebound in Russian deliveries.

However, Brent and WTI have lost about $10 a barrel since the start of the month and analysts have lowered oil price forecasts as the trade war between the world’s two largest economies has intensified.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in a monthly report on Monday that global oil demand will rise by 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, down by 150,000 bpd from last month’s forecast, citing trade tariffs among the reasons.

Goldman Sachs expects Brent to average $63 and WTI to average $59 for the remainder of 2025, with Brent averaging $58 and WTI $55 in 2026.

It sees global oil demand in the fourth quarter of 2025 rising by only 300,000 bpd year on year, analysts led by Daan Struyven said in a note, adding that slowing demand is expected to be most pronounced for petrochemical feedstocks.

The Brent price spread between December 2025 and December 2026 has also flipped into contango as investors have priced in oversupply and demand concerns, said BMI, part of Fitch Solutions. In a contango market, front-month prices are lower than those in future months, indicating no shortage of supply.

Potentially supporting oil prices, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Friday that the United States could stop Iranian oil exports as part of Trump’s plan to pressure Tehran over its nuclear programme.