Nifty futures rollover falls below 3-month average on Trump tariff uncertainty

The rollover for the Nifty 50 in March fell to 76.09%, a drop from last month’s 83.57% and below the three-month average of 80.14%. The number of shares rolled over declined to 14 million, compared to 17.6 million last month.

Market experts attribute this lower rollover percentage to traders turning cautious at a time of US tariff uncertainty.

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“Ahead of the tariff announcement by US President Donald Trump on 2 April, Nifty rollovers are lower, as traders wait for clarity, especially with the long weekend and market holiday,” said Rajesh Palviya, SVP-Technical and Derivatives Research, at Axis Securities. He added that long positions are likely to build up after the announcement of the tariffs.

The rollover percentage is the proportion of traders who choose to move their positions from a contract that is about to expire to a contract with a later expiration date. A higher rollover percentage suggests strong market confidence, while a lower percentage might signal caution or uncertainty.

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Bank Nifty futures in March, however, saw a decline, with the rollover rate at 76.98%, lower than last month’s 81.64% but slightly above the three-month average of 76.69%.

Palviya added that Bank Nifty rollovers remain strong due to its outperformance over the Nifty 50 index. He also said that traders are holding onto positions as tariff concerns won’t significantly impact the banking sector or non-banking financial companies (NBFCs).

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The long ratio for foreign institutional investors (FII) for the current expiry is 40%, up from 16% in the previous expiry. “This indicates an increase in long contracts and a potential bullish outlook,” Axis Securities said in a report.

Stock-specific rollovers

Sudeep Shah, vice president and head of technical and derivatives research at SBI Capital Securities, in a report said that under the total stocks in the futures and options (F&O) universe, 63 stocks posted gains of over 10%, while 79 stocks advanced between 5% and 10% in March. Only 5 stocks saw declines exceeding 10%, and 8 stocks registered losses in the 5-10% range, reinforcing the overall positive market bias, he added.

Berger Paints, Escorts Kubota, Manappuram Finance, Supreme Industries, and Persistent saw higher rollovers on Thursday compared to the same day of the previous expiry. While, Avenue Supermarts, HCL Tech, BPCL, Sun Pharma, and Bharat Forge saw lower rollover on Thursday compared to the same day of the previous expiry.