Nifty down 13% from its peak. Is it a major fall? Is the bottom near? Porinju Veliyath, Muthukrishnan share insights | Stock Market News

The Indian stock market is going through a period of high uncertainty. On one hand, prevailing headwinds—such as the trade war and foreign capital outflows—suggest that the market may remain under pressure in the short term. On the other hand, experts are hopeful that the Indian economy will overcome its weaknesses, with corporate earnings improving due to rising consumption and increased government and corporate spending.

However, amid the current market turmoil, some leading experts believe that the Indian stock market may have hit the bottom and that a recovery is on the horizon. They advise investors to shrug off the pessimism that has gripped the market after a 13 per cent decline from its peak in just four and a half months. According to them, this drop is not among the most significant declines seen in the last 40 years.

Close to the bottom?

Ace investor and the founder and CEO of Equity Intelligence India Ltd, Porinju Veliyath, believes the Indian market may be close to the bottom, if not near it.

“Seasoned investors have been expecting a significant market correction for a few quarters. Finally, when the correction happened, it hurt everyone, including those who were sitting on some cash. Now, I believe we are close to, if not at, the bottom of the market,” Veliyath wrote on social platform X (formerly Twitter).

The Nifty 50 is now below 22,950. On Friday, February 14, the index ended 102 points, or 0.44 per cent, lower at 22,929.25, extending the losses into the eighth consecutive session. From its peak of 26,277.35, the index has lose 12.74 per cent.

Not a major fall

Nifty hit its record high on September 27 last year. For many new investors, a decline of over 10 per cent in just four and a half months may seem alarming. However, the current market downturn is not among the most significant declines of the past four decades. As recently as 2020, the market experienced a sharp 38 per cent crash due to the COVID-19-induced selloff.

D. Muthukrishnan, a certified financial planner (CFP), highlighted on X that despite the current decline, the market’s CAGR remains at 15.50 per cent. He emphasised that investors should not be fearful, as this is not a major correction.

Muthukrishnan pointed out that during the subprime crisis in 2008-2009, the market had crashed 61 per cent. Earlier in 2000-2001, when the dot-com bubble burst, the market suffered a crash of -56 per cent. The Harshad Mehta scam in 1992-1994 caused the market to sink 54 per cent.

Despite the recent downtrend, the long term outlook for the market remains positive due to structural uptrend of the Indian economy and strong influx of retail investors.

According to the Economic Survey 2025, despite global uncertainty, India’s real GDP growth of 6.4 per cent in FY25 (as per first advance estimates) remains close to the decadal average. The survey expects real GDP growth in FY26 to be between 6.3 per cent and 6.8 per cent.

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Disclaimer: The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts, experts, and brokerage firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult certified experts before making any investment decisions.