Chile Keeps Faith in Lithium Expansion Even as Glut Worsens

(Bloomberg) — Chile, home to the world’s biggest lithium reserves, is confident that investors will compete for licenses to drill new deposits even amid a worsening global glut that’s squeezing the battery-metal industry.

“We’re convinced that there’s interest,” Mining Minister Aurora Williams said in an interview late Wednesday — a day before Chile warned that global oversupply is set to increase this year, despite some industry cutbacks.

Companies have until Jan. 31 to apply directly for contracts as the government looks to open up new areas to lithium mining. Authorities have already started indigenous consultation processes for as yet untapped salt flats. Other clay and geothermal deposits are also being offered to the private sector.

The new areas — identified partly based on expressions of interest from prospective bidders — are part of the government’s efforts to boost production under a public-private model. Chile, the top lithium producer after Australia, is banking on investors taking a long-term view on the strength of electric-vehicle demand as prices stabilize from a sharp pullback.

Still, oversupply in the market is set to swell this year as Chinese demand slows, according to a report released Thursday by Chilean agency Cochilco, which also cited the threat of sweeping US tariffs.   

Currently, only two companies produce lithium in Chile — SQM and Albemarle Corp. — from a single salt flat. They are expected to push up national output by 7% this year to 305,000 metric tons, Cochilco estimates.

Under the government’s model for the sector, the state will take a controlling stake in operations considered strategically significant, while allowing private firms to retain control of projects in non-strategic areas. The goal is to more than double output over the next decade.

Authorities are expected to grant Enami a lithium operating license soon, paving the way for the Chilean state company to secure partners to develop the project. Another state mining firm, Codelco, is lining up a partner for the Maricunga lithium project. Williams declined to comment on those processes.

The state companies are also working on separate copper smelting projects — Enami is looking at a major upgrade of its shuttered plant while Codelco is working on a proposal to develop a new smelter with private capital. 

The Mining Ministry’s focus is the Enami modernization project, which is moving through environmental evaluation, Williams said. She declined to comment on Codelco’s initiative, other than to say it would fit in with the goal of maintaining or increasing smelting capacity in Chile.

Building smelters makes little business sense right now given the abundance of Chinese capacity. But there are sustainability and geopolitical factors at play as nations look to boost their presence in battery supply chains in response to China’s dominance. 

The Chilean government also hopes Codelco’s three existing smelters remain viable, including the almost century-old Potrerillos plant, Williams said.

(Adds copper smelting projects from ninth paragraph)

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