Biggest CME gap ever at $85K: 5 Things to know in Bitcoin this week

Source: Coin Tegraph

Bitcoin (BTC) is back with a vengeance this week as US President Donald Trump appears to confirm the strategic crypto reserve.

• BTC price action abandons its slump to seal a $10,000 daily “green” candle — and a giant CME futures gap.

• Trump champions the reserve in advance of the first White House crypto summit, which promises “more to come.”

• A big week of US employment data will culminate in Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaking on crypto summit day.

• Bitcoin market indicators are showing signs of recovery, including a solid rebound in onchain profitability.

• Sentient remains fearful as traders digest the latest developments — is it too soon to believe in a bull market comeback?

Bitcoin traders warn of fresh BTC price dip

BTC price action is at the center of attention — but already not for the same reasons as last week.

Amid the US crypto reserve reaction, multimonth lows have given way to a solid rebound, which at one point topped 20%.

On some markets, BTC/USD even delivered a $10,000 daily candle, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.

Reacting, traders are now keen to delineate important support areas in the event of a retest.

“$90K-$91K area, which has acted as the range low the past few months, is a key area to watch,” popular trader Daan Crypto Trades wrote in one of his latest posts on X. 

“We saw a violent breakdown and retake back into the range. Price is currently testing it and this would be a region where bulls would want to step in. Daily closes are most important here so keep an eye on those during this week.”

Daan Crypto Trades referred to a three-month trading range in which BTC/USD remained prior to a liquidation cascade, which saw it fill a “gap” in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures markets at $78,000.

For others, including fellow trader Mark Cullen, another gap — the largest in Bitcoin’s history as a result of the daily candle — now risks providing a short-term downside magnet.

“That 90K liquidity got run and some. Now Bitcoin is eyeing the 95k level above yesterdays highs, which i think will be a target for US open,” he told X followers alongside a chart of order book liquidity. 

“The question for me is if the 85k level is retested to clean up the CME gap and inefficiency from yesterdays pump? would be one hell of a shake out if they did that to us….”

Crypto Summit week gets “Trump pump” treatment

Two social media posts were all it took to reignite a market frenzy over a US strategic crypto reserve.

As Cointelegraph continues to report, US President Donald Trump returned to the topic over the weekend, suddenly appearing to confirm that a strategic crypto reserve will go ahead.

Initial doubts over whether Bitcoin or Ether (ETH) would appear quickly faded as Trump gave them a special mention, adding that he “loves” both tokens.

Now, the focus is switching to the long-term implications of such a move.

“This means Bitcoin is now OUT of bear market territory and ~16% away from a new all time high,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in part of an X thread on the topic.

Kobeissi noted that the upcoming dedicated US crypto summit should yield further news triggers, referencing Washington’s crypto czar, David Sacks.

“President Trump has announced a Crypto Strategic Reserve consisting of Bitcoin and other top cryptocurrencies,” he responded on X after Trump’s posts. 

“This is consistent with his week-one E.O. 14178. President Trump is keeping his promise to make the U.S. the ‘Crypto Capital of the World.’ More to come at the Summit.”

The event is due to take place on March 7, hosted by Trump.

Kobeissi nonetheless queried how many more “good news” stories for crypto could emerge from the new US administration.

“The question becomes, what’s the next big catalyst for crypto?” it summarized about what it suggested could be the “biggest sentiment shift in crypto’s history.”

“We have seen just about all of Trump’s campaign promises priced-in here. What’s the next step in crypto adoption and the growth narrative?”

Fed Chair Powell to speak with jobs in focus

The week’s remaining macroeconomic developments are focused on key US employment data to which crypto markets have proven sensitive in recent months.

March 6 sees initial jobless claims, while the day after, the US jobs report will precede a speech from Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve.

Potential volatility catalysts thus remain stacked toward the end of the week.

Inflation remains a talking point, however, with markets keen for Fed guidance on the back of a pleasing result from its “preferred” inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, last week.

“This week is all about the labor market and the Fed,” The Kobeissi Letter summarized in part of its weekly outlook thread on X.

Kobeissi noted that the next Fed interest rate decision is only around two weeks away and “comes amid major market volatility.”

The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool nonetheless shows little belief that rate cuts will continue this month, with the odds at just 7%.

Coinbase premium hints at US demand rebound

Crypto market demand has some way to go before definitively recovering, various data sources show.

The Coinbase premium index, which tracks the difference in spot price between Coinbase’s BTC/USD pair and Binance’s BTC/USDT equivalent, is currently rebounding toward positive territory.

A positive premium accompanied much of Bitcoin’s run to current all-time highs through Q4 last year, indicating increased buyer interest in the US.

In one of its latest “Quicktake” blog posts on Feb. 6, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant said that the index was “showing signs of recovery.”

“Although this doesn’t confirm strong institutional buying yet, it does indicate a clear easing in selling pressure,” contributor Onat Tütüncüler commented. 

“Additionally, the 50-hour moving average crossing above the 170-hour moving average suggests a possible shift toward short-term bullish momentum.”

Tütüncüler noted similar signs from the adjusted spent output profit ratio (aSOPR) indicator, which measures the extent to which coins moved onchain are done so in profit or loss.

CryptoQuant data shows aSOPR currently back above the breakeven point, reflecting a return to aggregate profit after hitting its lowest levels since August 2024 during mass panic selling. 

“With selling pressure slowing and potential bottoming signals emerging, key resistance levels to watch in the coming days are $90,000 and $92,500,” he concluded. 

“Keeping an eye on further recovery in aSOPR and the Coinbase Premium Index will be crucial for Bitcoin’s next move.”

Crypto sentiment still fearful

Despite the positive weekend news catalysts, crypto market sentiment appears to need further confirmation of better times ahead.

Related: When will Bitcoin price bottom?

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which uses a basket of factors to determine a marketwide mood score among traders, still sits firmly in “fear” territory.

At 33/100 as of March 3, the Index has nonetheless recovered significantly from local lows of just 10/100 seen last week.

At the time, Julien Bittel, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor, saw the potential for a significant bull run comeback.

Some, however, remain cautious — especially given that the excitement over the crypto reserve contains a significant political element.

In another Quicktake post at the weekend, CryptoQuant contributor Crypto Avails warned that Trump might turn the tide against bulls once more.

“His recent statements about a ‘crypto reserve’ could ignite a new rally. However, it’s also possible that he might later reverse the sentiment with comments like, ‘We’ve paid off all our debts, we no longer need crypto.’ That’s exactly his style,” he argued.

“The actors change, but the cycles remain the same — only the timing shifts. From now on, our eyes will be on the charts, and our ears on Trump’s critical statements.”

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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