Aswath Damodaran eyes tariff-crisis aftershock on US stock market: Magnificent Seven sheds 15% YTD, tech worst hit | Stock Market News

In early April 2025, global financial markets were jolted by a sharp and unexpected escalation in trade policy. US President Donald Trump announced sweeping reciprocal tariffs targeting nearly every major trading partner, a move that went beyond the tit-for-tat approach of previous years.

US equities had the biggest decline in dollar value terms, losing $5.3 trillion in value last week, a 9.24% decline in value from last Friday close on March 28, 2025.  Collectively, the Mag Seven came into last last week, already down 14.79% for the year (2025), but their losses last week, which massive in dollar value terms ($1.55 trillion) were close in percentage terms to the losses in the rest of the market.

China and India have held up the best in the last week, perhaps because both countries have large enough domestic markets to sustain them through a trade war. It is also a factory that with time differences, these markets both closed before the Friday beatdown on Wall Street unfolded, and the open on Monday may give a better indication of the true reaction.

The technology sector lost the most in value last week, both in dollar terms, shedding almost $1.8 trillion (and 11.6%) in equity value, and consumer staples and utilities held up the best, dropping 2.30% and 4.40% respectively. In percentage terms, energy stocks have lost the most in value, with market capitalizations dropping by 14.2%, dragged down by declining oil prices.

According to the valuation guru, the tariff story will have after shocks, with both negatives (other countries imposing their own tariffs, and the US responding) and positives (a pause in tariffs, countries dropping tariffs). 

Those after shocks will create more market volatility, and if history is any guide, there is more downside than upside in the near term. In addition, the market volatility can feed itself, as levered investors are forced to close out positions and fund flows to markets reflect investor concerns and uncertainty. If you add on top of that the possibility that global investors may decide to reduce their US equity holdings, that reallocation will have price effects.