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Granules, GCPL, RECL among 4 F&O stocks with bearish bets; more pain likely: F&O Cues
Source: Business Standard
Amid the market revival in the last 4 trading sessions, 11 out of 180 stocks traded in the derivatives segment have been able to rally more than 5 per cent. Prominent among these has been Dixon Technologies – up 11.8 per cent followed by OFSS, Jindal Steel and National Aluminium, up around 8 per cent each.
On the other hand, 6 F&O stocks have declined 4 or more per cent in the same period. Granules India tops the losers list with a loss of nearly 21 per cent. Tata Motors, Crompton Greaves, Aarti Industries, SRF and PFC are the other 5 stocks.
A closer look at the F&O data shows the following 4 stocks have seen short positions buildup in the last four trading sessions.
Will these stocks continue to extend losses, or can they bounce back? Here’s a trading guide for stocks with short buildup in the September series:
Granules India
Current Price: Rs 551
Downside Risk: 11.1%
Support: Rs 543; Rs 533
Resistance: Rs 600
Granules India has shed nearly 21 per cent on the back of over 78 per cent increase in open interest (OI); thus indicating possible short buildup at the counter. At present, the stock is in F&O ban period; hence no fresh positions will be allowed in the derivatives segment.
On the other hand, highest OI in Puts is seen at Rs 580 and Rs 600 Strikes. Thus, options data suggests likely support for Granules India at Rs 550 levels, and resistance at Rs 600.
Technically, the stock is seen testing support at its 20-WMA Weekly Moving Average), which stands at Rs 543. As long as this support holds, the stock can potentially bounce back to Rs 640 levels. On the flip side, break and trade below the same can trigger a slide towards Rs 490 levels with interim support seen around its 100-DMA (Daily Moving Average) at Rs 533.
Godrej Consumer Products (GCPL)
Current Price: Rs 1,455
Downside Risk: 4.5%
Support: Rs 1,453
Resistance: Rs 1,490
Godrej Consumer Products stock has declined 3.6 per cent on the back of 25.7 per cent rise in OI. The stock is thinly traded in the F&O segment, with present PCR at 0.38 – indicating the presence of more than 2 open positions in Calls for every bet in Puts.
Concentration of OI in Calls (almost 50 per cent of the OI) is seen at Rs 1,500, Rs 1,520 and Rs 1,540 Strikes; thus likely to act as a strong resistance zone. On the other notable OI in Puts stands at Rs 1,400 Strike, hinting of some support around Rs 1,390 levels.
On charts, the stock is seen testing support around its 50-DMA at Rs 1,453; with a likelihood of a dip towards the 100-DMA which stands at Rs 1,394. The bias is likely to remain tepid as long as the stock trades below Rs 1,490.
RECL
Current Price: Rs 550
Downside Risk: 8.2%
Support: Rs 545; Rs 540
Resistance: Rs 565; Rs 570; Rs 595
RECL has seen an 11.5 per cent rise in OI, while the stock dipped by 3 per cent in the last 4 trading sessions. The PCR at 0.4 reveals that there are almost 5 open bets in Calls for every 2 bets in Puts; thus suggesting presence of more Call writers.
The highest OI in Calls stands at Rs 630 and Rs 600 Strikes; with active trading seen from Rs 560 – Rs 660 Calls. On the other hand, highest OI in Puts stands at Rs 550 and Rs 560 Puts; thus implying likely support around Rs 540 levels. However, break and sustained trade below Rs 540 can trigger panic selling as Put writers will be forced to cut positions. On the upside, resistance for the stock is seen building in the range of Rs 570 – Rs 595.
Technically, RECL is seen trading below its 100-DMA for the second straight day. The daily chart shows presence of some support around Rs 545 levels, below which a slide towards the 200-DMA seems likely. The long-term moving average stands at Rs 505. Going ahead, immediate resistance for the stock is seen at Rs 565 levels followed by Rs 597.
Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals
Current Price: Rs 451
Downside Risk: 8%
Support: Rs 446; Rs 433
Resistance: Rs 463; Rs 480; Rs 490
Crompton Greaves PCR stands at 0.5; implying presence of 2 open positions in Calls for every bet in Puts. Highest OI in Calls is seen at Rs 500 Strike Price followed by Rs 480 and Rs 470; thus one can anticipate strong resistance in the Rs 480 – Rs 490 zone.
On the other hand, highest OI – although thinly traded – is seen at Rs 450 and Rs 430 Puts; the premium pricing analysis suggests likely support in the range of Rs 443 – Rs 430 for the September series.
On the chart, Crompton Greaves is seen testing support at its 50-DMA at Rs 246 – a key moving average the stock has mostly respected since April 2024. Break and trade below the same could see the stock dip to its super trend line support at Rs 433; below which a fall to Rs 415 levels cannot be ruled out. On the upside, the 20-DMA at Rs 463 is likely to act as a near-term hurdle.
First Published: Sep 17 2024 | 11:03 AM IST
