Week Ahead: India Q3GDP data, F&O expiry, FII flow, global cues among key triggers for Indian stock market | Stock Market News

The Indian stock market traded within a tight range to extend its corrective phase while settling at its lowest since early June. While select pockets of the market showed resilience, they failed to drive a broader, meaningful recovery.

Next, investors will monitor some key market triggers in the last week of February. India’s economic growth, the scheduled expiry of February’s derivative contracts, Donald Trump’s tariff announcements, the rupee-dollar rate, foreign fund outflow, domestic and global macroeconomic data, and global market cues will dictate the market direction in the next five days.

Domestic equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty 50 extended their losing streak for the fourth straight day to record weekly losses, dragged by auto, banking, and pharma stocks on uncertainty over the impact of US trade policy, weaker rupee against the dollar and relentless foreign fund outflows. 

Also Read: D-Street Ahead: How will the Indian stock market move next week? Key technical levels for Nifty, Sensex

Both benchmark indices, Nifty and Sensex, closed near their weekly lows at 22,795.90 and 73,311.06, respectively. Meanwhile, broader indices—midcap and smallcap—rebounded by approximately 1.5 per cent each after a sharp decline, providing some relief. On the weekly front, the Sensex fell 628.15 points or 0.82 per cent, and the Nifty went lower by 133.35 points or 0.58 per cent

With no major domestic events, the persistent foreign fund outflows and comments from the US President on potential tariffs kept market sentiment subdued throughout the week. On the sectoral front, a mixed trend kept market participants engaged. Metals, energy, and realty outperformed in the week, while auto, pharma, and FMCG were the top laggards. 

India’s corporate earnings remained under pressure, with Nifty 50 companies reporting modest five per cent growth in the October-December quarter of FY25, marking the third consecutive quarter of single-digit increases.

“India is currently lagging behind its Asian peers on high outflows. The “sell India, buy China” strategy yields returns. The market’s mood is cautious, with pessimistic sentiments likely to linger until corporate earnings improve markedly and a conducive environment with easy global liquidity and stabilised currency emerges,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services.

Also Read: NSE index rejig: BPCL and Britannia to exit, Jio Financial, Zomato to enter Nifty 50 effective March 28, 2025

This week, the primary market will witness a softer trend with a few initial public offerings (IPO), and listings are slated across the mainboard and small and medium enterprises (SME) segments. The upcoming holiday-shortened week will be critical from the domestic and global point of view as investors will track domestic and global economic data, along with currency rates.

Here are the key triggers for stock markets in the coming week:

India Q3 GDP growth

According to analysts, India’s GDP growth is projected to decelerate to a four-year low of 6.4 per cent this fiscal year, raising concerns about India’s corporate profitability and economic stability. Most rating agencies and brokerages estimate the Q3GDP growth between 6.2-6.4 per cent for the quarter.

The GDP data for the third quarter of FY25 is scheduled to be released on Friday, February 28, at 4:00 pm. Along with the Q3 GDP data, the government will also release the second advance estimate for the full-year GDP of FY25.

3 new IPOs, 5 listings to hit D-Street

No new IPOs are listed to be open in the mainboard segment this week. Three new issues will open in the SME segment. Among listings, shares of Quality Power Electrical Equipments Ltd will debut on the stock exchange BSE. NSE on February 24. Shares of four new SMEs will debut on either BSE SME or NSE SME this week.

FII Activity

Foreign investor sentiment remained weak, with approximately $25 billion in outflows from foreign institutional investors (FII) since the market peak in September, driven by concerns over high valuations and a slowing economy. 

Institutional activity reflected net FII outflows of ₹7,793 crore in the cash segment, while domestic institutional investors (DII) inflows stood at ₹16,582 crore, offering some support to the market sentiment.

“FII selling continues unabated in the Indian stock market. After selling stocks for ₹81,903 crore through the exchanges in January, FIIs followed it up by selling stocks for ₹30,588 crore through February 21,” said Dr V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services.

Also Read: RBI MPC Minutes: Inflation moderate in near-term, global trade policies pose risk to growth outlook; 5 key highlights

“This takes the total selling in 2025, so far, to ₹1,12,492 crore. The massive selling has resulted in the Nifty yielding negative returns of four per cent YTD,” added Dr V K Vijayakumar. “Since October 2024, India’s market cap has fallen by about $1 trillion, while China’s has risen by $2 trillion. This suggests a tactical shift in FII flows,” said Vaibhav Porwal, Co-Founder of Dezerv.

Data from NSDL shows that Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) pulled out approximately ₹25,000 crore from Indian equities in January 2024 alone, in sharp contrast to the substantial inflows of over ₹1.7 lakh crore in 2023.

Global Cues

The week is set to be dynamic for global and Indian markets, driven by key macroeconomic data releases and corporate earnings. Market sentiment will be shaped by GDP, Housing, inflation, infrastructure, and core PCE data. 

On Wednesday, February 26, US New Home Sales data will be released
The US GDP Growth Rate (QoQ) Second Estimates for Q4 will be released on Thursday, February 27. Investors will closely watch trends in foreign institutional investor (FII) flows and updates on US tariff policies.

Corporate Action

Shares of SBI Cards and Payment Services, Power Finance Corporation Ltd, among others, will trade ex-dividend in the coming week, starting from Monday, February 24. A few stocks will also trade ex-split and ex-bonus this week. Check full list here

Technical View

Technically, the Nifty 50’s decisive break below 22,700 could trigger the next leg of the downtrend, potentially dragging the index to 22,500 and then 22,000. Read full technical analysis here

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations provided in this analysis are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We strongly advise investors to consult with certified experts, consider individual risk tolerance, and conduct thorough research before making investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly, and individual circumstances may vary.